Il debito è servito
Telecom Italia. Il monopolista a volte definito ex monopolista, ma che forse proprio ex non lo è mai stato affatto. Non mi interessa ciò in questa sede. Solo che non è possibile, che ogni blog a sfondo economico-politico-sociale ripeta, da due anni, di continuo che Telecom Italia è una scatola piena di debiti; che è la nuova Parmalat; che migliaia di azionisti resteranno con il cerino in mano. Il debito c'è ed è innegabile. C'è il debito nella controllata Telecom Italia e c'è debito nella controllante Olimpia a cui fa capo Tronchetti Provera. Il debito di Telecom deriva, in parte da investimenti sostenuti durante gli anni, ma in larga parte deriva dai debiti contratti dalla gestione Colaninno; debiti finalizzati ad acquistare Telecom stessa.
Ma facciamo un passo indietro. Colaninno, nel 1999, acquistò la società dei telefoni facendo in gran parte leva su linee di credito concesse da un consorzio di banche. Il debito contratto era in capo a Olivetti mediante la controllata Tecnost, che venne poi fusa con la società di Ivrea. Pertanto la situazione debitoria di Telecom, all'epoca non fu variata di una virgola. Nel 2003, due anni dopo il passaggio di mano a Tronchetti, si procedette a fondere Olivetti con Telecom facendo innalzare il debito sopra i 40 miliardi di euro.
Nel frattempo furono però ceduti asset non strategici e il debito calò. L'anno scorso, tuttavia, il board di Telecom, convinto di essere prossimo al boom della fonia 3G, decise di lanciare un'OPA per delistare la controllata TIM da Piazza Affari: in parole povere, Tronchetti ha fatto acquistare tutte le azioni TIM a Telecom Italia che ora ingloba la società dei cellulari e beneficia del 100% dei lauti dividendi che essa genera. L'acquisto del 40% di TIM presente sul mercato ebbe ovviamente il suo costo e questo ha riportato la posizione debitoria di Telecom Italia di nuovo intorno a quota 40 miliardi di euro. Oltre a questi debiti, ci sono anche quelli di Olimpia, società veicolo con la quale Tronchetti ha rilevato (facendo altri debiti) il pacco di azioni Olivetti (poi divenute Telecom) da Colaninno e soci. Ma questa è un'operazione che non tocca la controllata, invece e i giornali fanno un mixture dei debiti di entrambe le società per creare sensazionalismo, per creare l'attesa del nuovo crack annunciato.
Ciò che a me interessa è capire come stia Telecom da punto di vista finanziario e smentire questo tran tran di voci che non fanno altro che creare distorsioni. Personalmente sono stufo della tanta disinformazione che continua ad essere fatta. Non sono un dipendente Telecom, non sono un'azionista Telecom (sebbene lo sia stato); sono un semplice cliente ADSL. Per capire il livello della disinformazione che circola tra giornali, quotidiani e blog, sono sufficienti pochi, semplici dati.
Ricavi annui di Telecom Italia nel 2005: circa 30 miliardi di euro.
Situazione debitoria: - 41,3 mld di euro
Struttura del debito: scadenze per la maggior parte a lungo termine; il 70% del debito è a tasso fisso.
Utile operativo 2005: 7,5 miliardi di euro
Dividendi annui distribuiti nel 2005: 3 miliardi di euro
È messa davvero così male?
Non credo. In caso di crisi, in caso di banche che esigono un rientro parziale dei debiti più a medio termine, sarebbe sufficiente ridurre i dividendi distribuiti alla metà. Oltre a garantire il servizio degli interessi passsivi, 1,5 mld di euro all'anno potrebbero abbattare la quota capitale di debito in modo da accelerare il rientro. In tal caso a subirne le conseguenze sarebbe la scatola Olimpia, che è indebitata e che, in quanto azionista, beneficia anch'essa dei dividendi distribuiti. Ma questo è un fatto suo. Di Tronchetti e delle sue banche socie. Questa soluzione da me discussa, è solo una delle tantissime per fronteggiare qualunque tipo di imprevisto che riguardi la situazione debitoria dell'ex monopolista. Un'altra potrebbe essere la vendita parziale o in blocco di TIM a un concorrente. Oppure una sua nuova IPO a Piazza Affari, che porterebbe, da sola, 15-20 miliardi. Insomma, di soluzioni ce ne sarebbero davvero tante. Ciò dimostra che la situazione debitoria è ampiamente gestibile.
Te capì, Grillo?
37 Comments:
Interessante analisi. Sarebbe bene discutere anche delle implicazioni che la gestione di olimpia puo' avere sull'amministrazione di telecom.
Complimenti ad ogni modo...
Con colaninno è stato l'inizio della fine.....
Io sono perfettamente d'accordo con te al riguardo.
ciao
Credo che dopo la conf call di oggi, domani ne vedremo delle belle...
Dimenticavo... desidero ancora ringraziarti "pubblicamente" per il consiglio sulle Apple ;) A quando un'analisi sulla situazione di AAPL.
ciao miscredente dell'analisi tecnica ;)
faccio una domanda con un anno di ritardo...Quali implicazioni ha avuto la fusione Telecom Italia-Olivetti per gli azionsti di minoranza di telecom italia, che si sono ritrovati un debilo di miliardi di euro sull'azienda da loro posseduta?
mi interesserebbe la tua opinione visto che hai fatto una lucida ed onesta analisi.
stefano, mandami una email :)
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